The objective of this report was to assess the economic impacts of a more severe disruption to world oil supplies. The terms of reference (provided in an attachment to this report) require modelling of the economic impact of a major physical supply disruption represented by a blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.
This scenario would represent a major crude oil supply shock, as opposed to the product supply shock examined in the Singapore scenario. The scope also required examination of the potential closure of Australian refineries on the magnitude of the economic impact.
ACIL Tasman was commissioned by the Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism to undertake an analysis of the economic impacts of a temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz using our computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, Tasman Global.