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Modelling for the Liddell Taskforce

Publisher
Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources
Date

The Liddell Taskforce was required by its Terms of Reference to model the impact on wholesale and retail power prices from Liddell’s closure, and the options identified to maintain similar price, reliability and security outcomes. The Taskforce commissioned Frontier Economics to undertake the modelling work.

The modelling shows that if Liddell closes and is not replaced, NSW average wholesale prices could rise from the low $60s per megawatt hour (MWh) in 2022 to around $80 per MWh in 2024; and continue increasing to $105 per MWh by 2030.

The 2 lowest modelled price outcomes that support our industries require significant dispatchable capacity:

  • where Liddell is replaced by more than 860 MW of extra dispatchable capacity, this results in an average NSW wholesale price of around $75 per MWh in 2024.
  • where two units of Liddell are extended for three years resulting in more than 1200 MW of extra dispatchable capacity in NSW, this results in an average NSW wholesale price of around $70 per MWh in 2024.